2010 World Cup Squad Predictions Market

[Revised July 27. The AskMarkets prediction market was too volatile, so I switched over to Inkling. My apologies to the people who invested time into the earlier version.]


I'm excited to introduce the Soccer Tactician predictions markets for the US's 2010 World Cup Squad. These are basically fancy polls for who you think is likely to make it to South Africa. It will let us see how players' stocks rise and fall over time, especially if there are enough people playing the market to make it robust. Please don't try to game the market, because that makes it useless.







For the defenders, I set initial prices. For the other two markets, I decided to leave the initial prices at 50%, and let the market determine the values. Here's how it will work: I will close the markets right before my trial period ends in a 45 days, refunding investors, and then create a new trial account in which the players have the same value as they closed at. I know this is sucks for investors, but I can't afford to spend 40 real bucks a month running this thing.

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My Squad Prediction

Goalkeepers (3): Howard, (Guzan)
Defenders (7-9): Onyewu, Bocanegra, Spector, Demerit
Midfielders(7-9): Donovan, Dempsey, Bradley, (Feilhaber), (Jones)
Forwards (3-5): Altidore, Davies, (Ching)

Parenthesis indicate less certainty. These players account for 14 of the 23 men who will make the final squad, so long as they are fit and healthy.

Keep in mind that some of these players are bound to be unavailable because of injury. Arrows indicate primary alternative postions.

I predict the remaining spots will be filled by:

• Perkens: getting club minutes (unlike Guzan), performing well in the Gold Cup.
  
• Marshall: other options include Goodson, Parkhurst, and Conrad, but right now Marshall has looked the most solid
  
• Pearce: will be competing with Bornstein and Castillo, but maturity should win out. However, this could very well change depending on club seasons.
  
• Hejduk: his versatility and leadership qualities means he leapfrogs the more talented Cherundolo
• Clark: performed too well in the Confed Cup to be omitted. Has earned Bradley's trust, but may lose his place if Edu has a shining season in Scotland
• Torres: Bradley's comments suggest he recognizes what a classy player Torres is becoming. The clincher will be his left foot, which permits Bradley to shift him into left midfield if needed. This is probably my riskiest pick, as Torres could very easily be replaced by Edu, Beckerman, or Mastroeni.
  
• Holden: who else? Kljestan? Adu? Quaranta? Holden is a class above all the other options for attacking midfield depth.
• Cooper: unless someone else emerges, Cooper should earn a striker spot. However, I continue to believe that the US needs a fast striker who can wreck havoc as a sub. Arnaud is one possibility; Eddie Johnson is another; neither is ideal. Hopefully someone will have a breakout season and emerge as a revelation.
  
• One additonal players. Possible choices: Cherundolo, Edu, Bornstein, Rogers, Castillo, Beasley, Adu, and Kljestan, in roughly that order. Rogers jumps up that list if he has a good game tomorrow.
  

Some possible wildcards: Cannon, Heaps, Convey, Pontius, Tracy, Movsisyan, Findley, Wolff