Review: Confederations Cup

[Updated July 2, 2009]
Landon Donovan's heatmaps for the games versus Egypt, Spain, and Brazil (the final). The US is defending the goal at top.

Confederation Cup tactical summary: the 4-4-2 formation unlocked the US's potential. Keeping 11 men on the field helped, and players did step up individually, but it was Davies's presence up front with Altidore that changed games. The two of them together provided attacking options and occupied defenders far better than either one could alone. The formation also dropped Landon deeper into midfield, where he was able to function as a fulcrum between defense and attack (See above. Also: stats).

***

How predictions played out

US vs Spain (red); you have to be careful with these diagrams, because it would make it appear that the US had a high defensive line, whereas most people who saw the game would tell you that they defended fairly deep. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle: the US did manage to catch Fernando Torres offsides 5 times; on the other hand, almost all of Spain's 11 shots came from inside the penalty area. One interesting aspect of this diagram is the degree to which Davies (#2) exploited the space left by Spain's roaming right back, Ramos. Note also how Dempsey (#25) was deployed on that side, even though he lined up on the right against Egypt and in the final. Dempsey likes to cut in. The result-- Davies draws Puyol (#5) out, leaves space for Dempsey to cut inside and exploit. Also funny: Xabi Alsonso is #14. Pique is #3. Huh.


US vs Spain

I wrote: "Lessons for the US versus Spain: unfortunately, the numbers don't tell us much beyond what we already know: make early subs for weary legs, watch out for Xavi on both the pass and the dribble, reinforce the right side of defense."

• make early subs: Bob Bradley's one 'early sub'--Feilhaber for Davies in the 67th minute-- yielded a goal. Later, he left Michael Bradley on despite the fact that even a yellow card would have left him suspended for the final. Little Bradley saw a harsh red in the 86th. On the other hand, the US looked surprisingly fresh for the game. +0
• watch out for Xavi: Bradley (both of them) made a point of closing down Xavi, and it worked an absolute treat. +1
• reinforce the right side of defense: seemingly not needed because they instead clogged the middle. -0.5

I wrote: "Note how Sergio Ramos (#15) effectively plays as a midfielder-- unfortunately, Adu aside, the US lacks a good left sided attacker to take advantage of the space he leaves in behind. However, the Spanish defense is not unbreachable: Altidore's height could give Puyol fits; Davies speed has the ability to expose Marchena or Pique; and Capdevila, a converted winger, has defensive frailities Dempsey and Donovan can exploit. All this depends, however, on disrupting the Spanish midfield. Using a high defensive line to compress the field-- like Iraq did-- might be a worthwhile gamble, despite Spain's dangerous speed up front.

• The US don't have the people to exploit Sergio Ramos: right about Ramos being susceptible, wrong about the US being unable to capitalize. The first goal, Davies moves left, drawing the central defenders over to cover for the absent Ramos, and leaving Capdevila exposed against Altidore (video). The second time was more luck, though you could also call it an exploitation of Ramos's overconfidence. -0.5
• The US could exploit the rest of the Spanish defense: check. +1
• Use a high defensive line to compress the field: Bradley seemed to do the opposite, and it worked well, even if the US rode their luck a bit. Ultimately, it was more a musing than a prediction, and the data is ambivalent. -0.5

US vs Brazil

I wrote: "As with the Spain game, the US can do themselves a world of good by scoring first. Brazil's counterattacks will puree them if they are forced to chase the game. I do think that this game will be decided by luck more than tactics. Since Brazil tend not to play through the midfield as much as Spain, they will be harder to neutralize. That said, I'll go out on a limb and predict (nay, pray) USA 2, Brazil 1. The US scores one of their goals on a set piece."

• Brazil's "left back lacks protection": Spector's cross from the left did lead to the goal. +1
  
• Maicon was dangerous: well, he both created (for Fabiano) and conceded (on the Donovan/ Davies counter) a goal, so we'll call it even. +0
  
• US win 2-1, with set piece: Brazil win 3-2, with set piece. -0.5
  
• Decided by luck rather than tactics: hard to say, but you would probably say that it was a matter of quality rather than luck. Over the course of the game, the coaches neutralized each other tactically; Bradley won the first half using the same tactics he had used against Spain, but once Dunga told his players to start getting down the wings they caused all sorts of havoc. Ultimately, it was decided by the 'luck' of a set piece. +0.5

Score: +1.5, with generous scoring.

-Alex D