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Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Stats: Confederations Cup

Donovan and Torres are dangermen for their respective countries.

What the numbers tell us about the US vs Spain in particular.

Having fun with the Castrol Index.

1) Which three players have covered the most ground?
2) Name any one of the three fastest players.
3) Name two of the three players with the most completed passes.
4) Name two of the four players who have made the most solo runs.

***

1) Michael Bradley (22.6 miles), Clint Dempsey (21.6 miles), Landon Donovan (21.3 miles). Comparatively, Spain's hardest worker, Xavi, has run a mere 16.5 miles. Consider also that Spain has had an extra day to recover, and it seems fatigue will almost certainly be a factor when the teams play each other on Wednesday. Bob Bradley will want to dig into his subs bench early, even if it means taking off some of his better players.

2) Steven Pienaar (19.7 mph), Andre Santos (19.6 mph), Emad Mohammed (19.6mph). Comparatively, during last years Premiership season Gabriel Agbonlahor reached a meteoric 21.1 mph. The comparison is unfair, but readers may be interested to know that Usain Bolt easily topped 25 mph. However, interesting as they are, don't put too much stock in any of these numbers-- pure speed means relatively little in soccer. Although I would really have liked to see Bolt train with Real Madrid-- he would be an absolutely terrifying forward if he had even a modicum of skill.

As far as Spain goes: it is worth noting that Fernando Torres was the 5th fastest player in the EPL. I thought that Mathew Booth did an admirable job marking him out of the game against South Africa, but no one will underestimate the threat Torres poses. Indeed, the attention devoted to Torres seams to be one of the reasons Villa has flourished the past two games. That and the fact that Villa is a damn smooth criminal.

3) Xavi (229) is a gimme. He easily topped Italy's midfield powerhouses, Andrea Pirlo (159) and Danielle De Rossi (158), beating them by more than 44%. Xavi must be shut down if Spain's opponents are to have any hope of competing.

4) Few surprises here: Robinho (12 runs), followed by Xavi, Maicon, and Capdevila (10 runs). Capdevila terrorized Spain's opponents down the left during the first two games, registering 3 assists in the process and combining well with Riera and Mata. Jonathan Spector will have his hands full tomorrow.

Lessons for the US versus Spain: unfortunately, the numbers don't tell us much beyond what we already know: make early subs for weary legs, watch out for Xavi on both the pass and the dribble, reinforce the right side of defense.

Source: group stages statistical stars


Spain's on-field line-up against South Africa (l) (2-0) and Iraq (r) (1-0). Blue dots indicate Spanish subs. Spain's player numbers available here. Note how Sergio Ramos (#15) effectively plays as a midfielder-- unfortunately, Adu aside, the US lacks a good left sided attacker to take advantage of the space he leaves in behind. However, the Spanish defense is not unbreachable: Altidore's height could give Puyol fits; Davies speed has the ability to expose Marchena or Pique; and Capdevila, a converted winger, has defensive frailities Dempsey and Donovan can exploit. All this depends, however, on disrupting the Spanish midfield. Using a high defensive line to compress the field-- like Iraq did-- might be a worthwhile gamble, despite Spain's dangerous speed up front.

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